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美國(guó)商務(wù)部前部長(zhǎng):搞不定疫情,經(jīng)濟(jì)好不起來(lái)

Robert Hackett
2020-10-15

彭妮?普利茨克認(rèn)為,除非處理好新冠病毒危機(jī),否則不可能實(shí)現(xiàn)復(fù)蘇。

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如果喬?拜登上任,對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)有何影響?

隨著美國(guó)總統(tǒng)大選的投票日臨近,每個(gè)人腦中都會(huì)想到這個(gè)問題。根據(jù)政治傾向不同,有些人擔(dān)心,有些人則希望這位前副總統(tǒng)實(shí)施激進(jìn)的左傾改革。其他有些人希望,也有人擔(dān)心他找麻煩。

美國(guó)商務(wù)部的前部長(zhǎng)彭妮?普利茨克曾經(jīng)在奧巴馬政府任職,比大多數(shù)人更了解拜登的議程。身為拜登的高級(jí)經(jīng)濟(jì)顧問之一,普利茨克相當(dāng)有話語(yǔ)權(quán)。此外,普利茨克還是凱悅酒店家族繼承人、微軟董事會(huì)成員、芝加哥PSP Partners投資公司創(chuàng)始人,能夠精準(zhǔn)把握商業(yè)和投資者受到的影響。

《財(cái)富》雜志采訪了普利茨克,請(qǐng)她分享對(duì)11月后經(jīng)濟(jì)前景的看法。她認(rèn)為,除非處理好新冠病毒危機(jī),否則不可能實(shí)現(xiàn)復(fù)蘇。以下是她對(duì)未來(lái)幾個(gè)月的期望。為了簡(jiǎn)明起見,對(duì)話經(jīng)過了編輯和精簡(jiǎn)。

《財(cái)富》:11月會(huì)發(fā)生什么?

佩妮?普里茨克:我支持拜登-賀錦麗組合,這不是什么秘密。拜登組合確定性更高也更穩(wěn)定。他對(duì)解決新冠危機(jī)制定了計(jì)劃,對(duì)推動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)的想法也很棒。從根本上說(shuō),我相信喬?拜登會(huì)是一位稱職的總統(tǒng)。他打算創(chuàng)造數(shù)百萬(wàn)個(gè)高薪工作。高盛和穆迪的報(bào)告稱,拜登的經(jīng)濟(jì)計(jì)劃將比唐納德?特朗普多創(chuàng)造700多萬(wàn)個(gè)就業(yè)機(jī)會(huì)。

特朗普總統(tǒng)最近在推特(Twitter)上說(shuō),投票給民主黨就是支持大規(guī)模增稅、經(jīng)濟(jì)封鎖,還會(huì)導(dǎo)致失業(yè)。誰(shuí)說(shuō)得對(duì)?

特朗普沒有提及自己的執(zhí)政情況。他想讓我們?cè)谠u(píng)價(jià)他時(shí)把橄欖球比賽當(dāng)作只有三個(gè)賽季,而不是四個(gè)賽季。過去六個(gè)月里,聯(lián)邦政府出現(xiàn)了史上最嚴(yán)重的管理不善。美國(guó)損失了上千萬(wàn)個(gè)工作崗位。由于并未推出有效的疫情應(yīng)對(duì)策略,而且對(duì)專家意見也置若罔聞,結(jié)果是數(shù)百萬(wàn)美國(guó)人失業(yè)。

失去的崗位還能夠恢復(fù)么?

有些可能不行,其他應(yīng)該還有機(jī)會(huì)。請(qǐng)記住,大衰退后創(chuàng)造的就業(yè)機(jī)會(huì)中,有25%在休閑和酒店領(lǐng)域。人們渴望旅行。但人們要多了解數(shù)字領(lǐng)域的知識(shí),提升相關(guān)素質(zhì)。如果要繼續(xù)創(chuàng)造就業(yè)機(jī)會(huì),必須確保人們做好準(zhǔn)備。

拜登施政會(huì)有何不同?

拜登將在研發(fā)等重要領(lǐng)域加大投資。目前美國(guó)研發(fā)投入接近GDP的0.6%,降至1955年以來(lái)最低水平。如果在研發(fā)上投入如此少,如何在全球范圍內(nèi)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)并確保領(lǐng)先地位?我們要成為人工智能、量子、電動(dòng)汽車、清潔能源、5G和寬帶領(lǐng)域的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者。這些都是未來(lái)的技術(shù),也是當(dāng)下需要投入的技術(shù)。

貿(mào)易摩擦如何處理?

跟中國(guó)的貿(mào)易摩擦并未奏效。特朗普承諾減少貿(mào)易逆差,然而今年夏天美國(guó)對(duì)中國(guó)和墨西哥的國(guó)際貿(mào)易逆差創(chuàng)下歷史新高。這些是喬?拜登將要面對(duì)的問題。

美國(guó)商務(wù)部接替你擔(dān)任部長(zhǎng)的羅斯對(duì)流行的中國(guó)應(yīng)用程序TikTok和微信發(fā)布禁令。白宮稱這些軟件對(duì)國(guó)家安全造成威脅。你建議如何處理?

國(guó)家安全必須保護(hù),問題是怎么做?直接禁止可能現(xiàn)在感覺不錯(cuò),但推演接下來(lái)的五六步再看看。對(duì)現(xiàn)在使用TikTok的1億用戶來(lái)說(shuō),有什么影響?關(guān)鍵在于制定計(jì)劃實(shí)現(xiàn)想要的結(jié)果。

你認(rèn)為有沒有比完全禁止更好的方法?

有更細(xì)致的方法??隙o(wú)法一夜就實(shí)現(xiàn),需要結(jié)合強(qiáng)有力的舉措和外交手段。需要談判。其實(shí)很復(fù)雜,我認(rèn)為可以做到兩全其美。只是需要能夠付諸實(shí)施的政府。

身為微軟董事會(huì)成員,你對(duì)甲骨文和沃爾瑪突然加入收購(gòu)TikTok,還有可能獲勝有沒有感覺失望?

我真沒法發(fā)表評(píng)論。感謝你的詢問。

面對(duì)大選的不確定性和可能出現(xiàn)的新一波疫情,你想跟讀者分享什么建議?

我給自己的建議是,首先確保當(dāng)前實(shí)際掌握的別出問題。確保你掌管的企業(yè)資本充足,可以順利度過波動(dòng)。現(xiàn)在,我們身處極度不確定的時(shí)期。我預(yù)測(cè)疫情還會(huì)持續(xù)一段時(shí)間。同時(shí)要接受新的想法。世界正在以前所未有的速度利用新技術(shù)。要充分抓住這個(gè)機(jī)會(huì)。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:梁宇

審校:夏林

如果喬?拜登上任,對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)有何影響?

隨著美國(guó)總統(tǒng)大選的投票日臨近,每個(gè)人腦中都會(huì)想到這個(gè)問題。根據(jù)政治傾向不同,有些人擔(dān)心,有些人則希望這位前副總統(tǒng)實(shí)施激進(jìn)的左傾改革。其他有些人希望,也有人擔(dān)心他找麻煩。

美國(guó)商務(wù)部的前部長(zhǎng)彭妮?普利茨克曾經(jīng)在奧巴馬政府任職,比大多數(shù)人更了解拜登的議程。身為拜登的高級(jí)經(jīng)濟(jì)顧問之一,普利茨克相當(dāng)有話語(yǔ)權(quán)。此外,普利茨克還是凱悅酒店家族繼承人、微軟董事會(huì)成員、芝加哥PSP Partners投資公司創(chuàng)始人,能夠精準(zhǔn)把握商業(yè)和投資者受到的影響。

《財(cái)富》雜志采訪了普利茨克,請(qǐng)她分享對(duì)11月后經(jīng)濟(jì)前景的看法。她認(rèn)為,除非處理好新冠病毒危機(jī),否則不可能實(shí)現(xiàn)復(fù)蘇。以下是她對(duì)未來(lái)幾個(gè)月的期望。為了簡(jiǎn)明起見,對(duì)話經(jīng)過了編輯和精簡(jiǎn)。

《財(cái)富》:11月會(huì)發(fā)生什么?

佩妮?普里茨克:我支持拜登-賀錦麗組合,這不是什么秘密。拜登組合確定性更高也更穩(wěn)定。他對(duì)解決新冠危機(jī)制定了計(jì)劃,對(duì)推動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)的想法也很棒。從根本上說(shuō),我相信喬?拜登會(huì)是一位稱職的總統(tǒng)。他打算創(chuàng)造數(shù)百萬(wàn)個(gè)高薪工作。高盛和穆迪的報(bào)告稱,拜登的經(jīng)濟(jì)計(jì)劃將比唐納德?特朗普多創(chuàng)造700多萬(wàn)個(gè)就業(yè)機(jī)會(huì)。

特朗普總統(tǒng)最近在推特(Twitter)上說(shuō),投票給民主黨就是支持大規(guī)模增稅、經(jīng)濟(jì)封鎖,還會(huì)導(dǎo)致失業(yè)。誰(shuí)說(shuō)得對(duì)?

特朗普沒有提及自己的執(zhí)政情況。他想讓我們?cè)谠u(píng)價(jià)他時(shí)把橄欖球比賽當(dāng)作只有三個(gè)賽季,而不是四個(gè)賽季。過去六個(gè)月里,聯(lián)邦政府出現(xiàn)了史上最嚴(yán)重的管理不善。美國(guó)損失了上千萬(wàn)個(gè)工作崗位。由于并未推出有效的疫情應(yīng)對(duì)策略,而且對(duì)專家意見也置若罔聞,結(jié)果是數(shù)百萬(wàn)美國(guó)人失業(yè)。

失去的崗位還能夠恢復(fù)么?

有些可能不行,其他應(yīng)該還有機(jī)會(huì)。請(qǐng)記住,大衰退后創(chuàng)造的就業(yè)機(jī)會(huì)中,有25%在休閑和酒店領(lǐng)域。人們渴望旅行。但人們要多了解數(shù)字領(lǐng)域的知識(shí),提升相關(guān)素質(zhì)。如果要繼續(xù)創(chuàng)造就業(yè)機(jī)會(huì),必須確保人們做好準(zhǔn)備。

拜登施政會(huì)有何不同?

拜登將在研發(fā)等重要領(lǐng)域加大投資。目前美國(guó)研發(fā)投入接近GDP的0.6%,降至1955年以來(lái)最低水平。如果在研發(fā)上投入如此少,如何在全球范圍內(nèi)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)并確保領(lǐng)先地位?我們要成為人工智能、量子、電動(dòng)汽車、清潔能源、5G和寬帶領(lǐng)域的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者。這些都是未來(lái)的技術(shù),也是當(dāng)下需要投入的技術(shù)。

貿(mào)易摩擦如何處理?

跟中國(guó)的貿(mào)易摩擦并未奏效。特朗普承諾減少貿(mào)易逆差,然而今年夏天美國(guó)對(duì)中國(guó)和墨西哥的國(guó)際貿(mào)易逆差創(chuàng)下歷史新高。這些是喬?拜登將要面對(duì)的問題。

美國(guó)商務(wù)部接替你擔(dān)任部長(zhǎng)的羅斯對(duì)流行的中國(guó)應(yīng)用程序TikTok和微信發(fā)布禁令。白宮稱這些軟件對(duì)國(guó)家安全造成威脅。你建議如何處理?

國(guó)家安全必須保護(hù),問題是怎么做?直接禁止可能現(xiàn)在感覺不錯(cuò),但推演接下來(lái)的五六步再看看。對(duì)現(xiàn)在使用TikTok的1億用戶來(lái)說(shuō),有什么影響?關(guān)鍵在于制定計(jì)劃實(shí)現(xiàn)想要的結(jié)果。

你認(rèn)為有沒有比完全禁止更好的方法?

有更細(xì)致的方法??隙o(wú)法一夜就實(shí)現(xiàn),需要結(jié)合強(qiáng)有力的舉措和外交手段。需要談判。其實(shí)很復(fù)雜,我認(rèn)為可以做到兩全其美。只是需要能夠付諸實(shí)施的政府。

身為微軟董事會(huì)成員,你對(duì)甲骨文和沃爾瑪突然加入收購(gòu)TikTok,還有可能獲勝有沒有感覺失望?

我真沒法發(fā)表評(píng)論。感謝你的詢問。

面對(duì)大選的不確定性和可能出現(xiàn)的新一波疫情,你想跟讀者分享什么建議?

我給自己的建議是,首先確保當(dāng)前實(shí)際掌握的別出問題。確保你掌管的企業(yè)資本充足,可以順利度過波動(dòng)?,F(xiàn)在,我們身處極度不確定的時(shí)期。我預(yù)測(cè)疫情還會(huì)持續(xù)一段時(shí)間。同時(shí)要接受新的想法。世界正在以前所未有的速度利用新技術(shù)。要充分抓住這個(gè)機(jī)會(huì)。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:梁宇

審校:夏林

What would a Joe Biden presidency mean for the economy?

It’s a question that hangs on everyone’s mind as poll day approaches. Some people fear—or hope, depending on political inclinations—the former vice president will make radical leftward changes. Others wish—or worry—he’ll not rock the boat.

Penny Pritzker, former secretary of commerce under Obama, has a closer view than most into Biden’s agenda. As one of his top economic advisers, Pritzker is uniquely situated to weigh in. Also, as a scion of the Hyatt Hotels family fortune, Microsoft board member, and founder of the Chicago-based PSP Partners investment firm, Pritzker has a nonpareil grasp on the implications for business and investors.

Fortune asked Pritzker to share her thoughts about the economic outlook, post-November. She believes recovery can’t happen until the COVID-19 crisis is effectively handled. Here is what she expects in the months ahead. The conversation has been edited and condensed for clarity.

Fortune: What’s going to happen in November?

Penny Pritzker: It’s no secret I'm on the Biden-Harris team. Biden represents greater certainty and stability. He has a plan to address the COVID crisis. He’s got a terrific economic plan. I fundamentally believe Joe Biden is a good jobs President. He has a plan to create millions of good-paying jobs. Reports from Goldman Sachs and Moody's say Biden's economic plan will create more than 7 million more jobs than Donald Trump.

President Trump recently tweeted that a vote for the Democrats is a vote for massive tax increases, economics shutdowns, and job losses. Who's right?

Donald Trump is not running on his track record. He wants us to judge him as if the football game only has three quarters, not four quarters. We've had the worst federal mismanagement in our history over the last six months. That’s cost us tens of millions of jobs. By not having an effective COVID strategy and by being dismissive of the experts, we're stuck in a situation where millions of Americans are out of work.

Are the lost jobs ever coming back?

Some may not. Others will, for sure. Remember, 25% of the jobs created after the Great Recession were in leisure and hospitality. People are itching to travel. But people are going to need to be more digitally astute and better trained. If we’re going to continue to create jobs, we have to make sure that our people are prepared for them.

What will Biden do differently?

Biden will invest in important things, like R&D. Our R&D investment is near 0.6% of GDP, which is the lowest level since 1955. How are we expected to compete globally, and be in the lead, if we're spending that little on R&D? We need to be a leader in A.I., in quantum, electric vehicles, clean energy, 5G, and broadband. These are the technologies of the future, but they're also the technologies of now.

What about the trade war?

The trade war with China has not worked. Trump promised to reduce our trade deficit, but instead our global trade deficit in goods with China and with Mexico hit all-time highs this summer. These are the things Joe Biden will stand up against.

Your successor at the Commerce Department, Secretary Ross, is issuing bans on popular Chinese apps TikTok and WeChat. The White House says they are national security threats. How would you recommend handling this predicament?

We have to protect our national security—the question is, how? A ban may feel good in the moment, but let's play this out five or six plays ahead. How will this work for the 100 million people using TikTok today? Having a plan to achieve your desired outcome is critical.

And you think there are better ways than an outright ban?

There are more nuanced approaches. It's not something that can be done overnight. It requires a combination of forceful behavior and diplomacy. It requires negotiation. It's complicated, but I think we can achieve both. But you need a government that's capable of doing that.

As a board member of Microsoft, were you disappointed that Oracle and Walmart swooped in as the likely winners of the TikTok acquisition contest?

I really can't comment on that. But I appreciate you asking.

With the uncertainty of an election looming alongside fears of new waves of coronavirus infections, what parting words of advice might you share with our readers?

The advice I try to give myself is first make sure you take care of what you've got. Make sure the businesses you own are well capitalized and can survive the volatility. Right now, we're in a period of extreme uncertainty. I predict that will continue for a while until we get through this pandemic. Also, be open to new ideas. The world is adopting technology at a pace it has never done before. Make sure you're taking advantage of those opportunities.

財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)所刊載內(nèi)容之知識(shí)產(chǎn)權(quán)為財(cái)富媒體知識(shí)產(chǎn)權(quán)有限公司及/或相關(guān)權(quán)利人專屬所有或持有。未經(jīng)許可,禁止進(jìn)行轉(zhuǎn)載、摘編、復(fù)制及建立鏡像等任何使用。
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